Last month I was involved in a training program run by an Iraqi NGO. The Iraqi trainers and many of the participants came from Baghdad. Their stories about daily life there were sobering, to say the least.
The lack of electricity came up in almost every story. It affects every aspect of people's lives -- security, health, transportation, housekeeping, communication, work, schooling, and more. It's nuts. Iraqis seem genuinely at a loss to understand why supposedly powerful Americans haven't been more effective in addressing the problem. One theory I heard, more than once, is that that US officials stay cooped up in the Green Zone and don't know or care how bad things are out in the rest of the city.
"Electricity Hits Three-Year Low in Iraq," by Charles J. Hanley and Sameer N. Yacoub - AP (Baghdad), 15 March 2006
Electricity output has dipped to its lowest point in three years in Iraq, where the desert sun is rising toward another broiling summer and U.S. engineers are winding down their rebuilding of the crippled power grid.
The Iraqis, in fact, may have to turn to neighboring Iran to help bail them out of their energy crisis — if not this summer, then in years to come.
The overstressed network is producing less than half the electricity needed to meet Iraq's exploding demand. American experts are working hard to shore up the system's weaknesses as 100-degree-plus temperatures approach beginning as early as May, driving up usage of air conditioning, electric fans and refrigeration.
If the summer is unusually hot, however, "all bets are off," said Lt. Col. Otto Busher, an engineer with the U.S. Army's 4th Infantry Division.
"We're living miserably," said housewife Su'ad Hassan, a mother of four and one of millions in Baghdad who have endured three years of mostly powerless days under U.S. occupation. Her family usually goes without hot water and machine washing, she said, and "often my children have to do their homework in the dim light of oil lamps."
Despite such hardships, Army Corps of Engineers officers regard their Restore Iraq Electricity project as one of the great feats in corps history, along with the building of the Panama Canal a century ago.
Their efforts and related programs, at a three-year cost of more than $4 billion and tens of thousands of man-hours, built or rehabilitated electric-generating capacity totaling just over 2,000 megawatts — equaling the output of America's Hoover Dam.
"It's not a disappointment, not in my opinion. We've added megawatts to the grid," said Kathye Johnson, reconstruction chief for the joint U.S. military-civilian project office in Baghdad.
For one thing, deprived areas outside the Iraqi capital are doing better, with a nationwide average of 10 to 11 hours of electricity daily, compared with three to five hours in Baghdad. That represents a reshuffling of priorities from prewar days, when the Baathist government diverted flows from northern and southern power plants to this central metropolis.
Although the U.S. effort helped boost Iraq's potential generating capacity to more than 7,000 megawatts, available capacity has never topped 5,400, held down by plant breakdowns and shutdowns for maintenance, fuel shortages and transmission disruptions caused by insurgent attacks, inefficient production, sabotage by extortionists, and other factors.
In the first week of February, a busy maintenance period, output dropped to 3,750 megawatts, reports the joint U.S. agency, the Gulf Region Division-Project Contracting Office. That's a new low since the period immediately after the 2003 U.S. invasion.
Now the U.S. reconstruction money is running out, the last generating project is undergoing startup testing in southern Iraq, and the Americans view 2006 as a year of transition to full Iraqi responsibility, aided by a U.S. budget for "sustainability," including training and advisory services.
Even that long-term support may fall short, however. The reconstruction agency allotted $460 million for this purpose, but in a report to Congress on Jan. 30 the special inspector-general for Iraq reconstruction estimated $720 million would be needed.
The decline of Iraq's electrical system can be traced back at least to the 1991 Gulf War, when U.S. warplanes targeted the grid. The government rebuilt the system to produce 4,400 megawatts, still short of demand. But damage from the 2003 invasion — and particularly from looting that followed — knocked production down to 3,200 megawatts and wrecked transmission lines.
The Army engineers who rolled into Iraq in 2003 found power plants barely operating, lacking spare parts and suffering from years of neglect brought on by U.N. trade sanctions. They brought in contractors to upgrade installations, but the looting and sabotage went on. Insurgents attacked fuel pipelines. Other Iraqis toppled transmission towers to keep power in their own cities and away from Baghdad.
To battle the insurgency, U.S. authorities shifted more than $1 billion from power projects to security spending. Having planned to add or rehabilitate 3,400 megawatts' worth of power production, they settled instead for 2,000. The lack of security also slowed work: Fewer than half the 350 local power-distribution projects planned by the Americans had begun as of early this year, the inspector-general reported Jan. 30.
"It's problems, rather than mistakes," said Mohamoud al-Saadi, an Iraqi Electricity Ministry official, citing the sabotage and insurgency.
But some believe the Americans also made a critical mistake by installing gas-turbine generators rather than building or overhauling more of the oil-fueled, steam-run plants.
Iraq doesn't have pipelines to deliver natural gas from its oil fields, so plant operators resort to low-grade oil to run the gas-combustion engines, reducing power output by up to 50 percent and potentially damaging the machinery.
"Turbines don't run well on that, and that forces us into a maintenance cycle," said Tom Waters, deputy director for electricity in the U.S. reconstruction office.
Meanwhile, demand kept rising as Iraqis bought imported air conditioners, washer-driers, DVD players and other power-hungry appliances. To help fill the gap, households or neighborhood groups are buying diesel-run generators, stringing dangerous makeshift wiring around their homes.
Demand, almost 9,000 megawatts last summer, is expected to rise sharply this year, and the Army engineers responsible for Baghdad are worried.
"We're about 4,000 megawatts in the hole nationwide to meet our needs," Maj. Al Moff, 4th Infantry Division electricity specialist, noted at a recent internal briefing for division officers.
He said the system risked losing 300 megawatts more in hydroelectric power because the Tigris River was running extremely low. But a recent agreement by Turkey to release more upriver water appears to have lifted that threat.
One solution could be power from Iran: one Iraqi proposal is for a transmission line to import much more than the 100 megawatts of Iranian power Iraq now buys.
The U.S. Embassy won't talk about it, in view of Washington's animosity toward Tehran over its nuclear ambitions. But the reconstruction office's Waters said one of the U.S.-financed Iraqi substations under construction could handle more Iranian power.
"Completing an Iran transmission line could give them up to 1,500 megawatts," said Army engineer Moff.
The Iranian Embassy says Tehran has earmarked $1 billion in loans for Iraqi infrastructure, mostly for electrical power, the Iranian news agency reports.
Even if a major Iran linkup is built, however, other projects may stay in the blueprint stage unless more aid is forthcoming from Washington or other donors....
The AP story does a good job of describing the difficulty of the task that engineers and program managers face in trying to rebuild Iraq's electrical system. There's another point of view that should be considered in analyzing the history of this problem, though. It's a relationship management perspective. The US needed (and needs) the trust and cooperation of the great majority of the Iraqi public to succeed in establishing stable and responsible government there. A reliable electricity supply is a vital commodity in modern urban societies. Publics aren't likely to trust or cooperate with authorities who don't do a passable job of providing that service. However cockeyed it looks from an engineer's perspective or how wasteful it looks from a program manager's perspective, it would have been wise to do whatever was necessary to get at least a minimal amount of electricity to residential neighborhoods -- enough to pump water and light streets and homes. Individual Baghdadis have managed to do this with generators; why couldn't we?
Added 22 March 2006 - also see:
"Iraqis Sound Angry on Invasion Anniversary," by Sinan Sallaheddin - AP (Baghdad), 20 March 2006
Some Baghdad residents voiced anger and dismay when asked about their lives as the U.S.-led war in Iraq entered its fourth year Monday, when insurgents and sectarian gangs killed at least 38 more people.
Salah Hashim, a 49-year-old businessman, said he yearned for the return of Saddam Hussein, the country's ousted dictator, given the violence that now envelops the country.
"Despite all he did that was bad, we did not suffer as we are now," Hashim said. "Now we have lost everything, even a sense of living. The Americans promised us, especially (President) George Bush, prosperity. And we thank them all because we got it — but we got a prosperity of car bombs, kidnappings and killings."
At least 992 people have been killed in a surge of sectarian killings since the Feb. 22 bombing of a Shiite Muslim shrine in Samarra, according to an Associated Press count.
"Now I have to spend time worrying about my safety while walking in the streets," said Hashim. "I have to worry about my children when they leave home for school. Instead of being comfortable and enjoying time with my family, I worry that I can't ensure their good life."
Ahmen Najeeb, a 33-year-old supermarket owner, said he originally "waved his hands" at American forces as they entered the country in March 2003, but that his outlook has since changed.
"Day after day the Americans proved that they are here to steal our oil and protect their homes by keeping the their war against terror in another country," he said.
One English teacher, though, said that Iraqis had tolerated Saddam's tyranny for so long that it was worth fighting through the violence to rebuild the country.
"What we are now living in is not an American failure nor that of the Iraqi government," said Assmaa Ali, 38. "The problem is in the Iraqi people ... we started fighting each other using statements and words. Now we are fighting each other with guns.
Ali said the only ones to blame were the insurgents and sectarian fighters who cause the problems. "They are the main reason behind the loss of life and destruction. We should help both the government and coalition forces in fighting these troublemaker instead of blaming them."
One man who said three of his daughters were killed by a bombing last year sounded despondent.
"I got nothing from this so-called liberation, just this cell phone and my satellite receiver. But I lost my three daughters," said Nawar Maarof, a 34-year-old taxi driver who said he had dreamed of becoming an accountant. "I have a feeling that my destiny is the same. Anyway, we're all dead."
Salam Nassir, a 25-year-old college student, also longed for Saddam.
"We deserve all this because we didn't fight the Americans," he said. "We had to know from the start they would not help us and were lying about liberating Iraq."
"Iraqi Reconstruction 'Has Stalled'" - BBC News, 21 March 2006
Much of Iraq is affected by chronic violence and crime and reconstruction of the country has stalled, according to Christian Aid.
Oliver Birch, manager of the charity's Iraq programme, said it was difficult to predict "a future which would not include civil war and even partition".
International Development Secretary Hilary Benn stressed that there had been progress, but it would take time.
The comments came as insurgents killed 18 people in a police station attack.
Police said about 20 armed attackers freed prisoners during the attack in the town of Miqdadiya, 40 miles north of Baghdad.
Meanwhile, the UK and US governments have committed tens of millions of pounds to Iraq's reconstruction, but the task is immense.
Christian Aid's Mr Birch told Radio 4's Today programme that conditions in the country did not appear to be improving.
"Quality of life indicators in most sectors are no higher than, or even below, the sanctions period just before the coalition invaded in 2003," he said.
These indicators included infant mortality, malnutrition and water supply....
Mr Benn accepted that the electricity supply was "a problem" and that it was old and needed investment and skilled workers. He said the electricity supply was one factor which demonstrated the importance of "peace and democracy" for progress....
Comments